One of the most intriguing storylines captivating NCAA Division III this offseason is the future of the American Southwest Conference (ASC). Let’s recap how the ASC went from 10 institutions that sponsored football in 2021 to the four remaining schools, whom I affectionately call the ‘Baptist 4’. 

Belhaven joined the USA South Athletic Conference as an associate member following the 2021 season. Southwestern was the next to leave when they moved to the Southern Athletic Association (SAA), where they joined Trinity. 

The Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference (SCAC) announced it would reinstate football for the 2024 season. This decision meant associate ASC football members Austin College and Texas Lutheran would depart following the 2023 campaign. McMurry accepted an invitation to join the SCAC for the 2024-2025 academic year. Sul Ross State announced it was transitioning to NCAA Division II and would join the Lone Star Conference (LSC) for the 2024 season. 

The defections left the ASC with only four teams and two years to add at least two schools that sponsor football or align with another conference to maintain its automatic bid to the NCAA Division III playoffs. This time last year, rumors swirled about the ASC joining the Coast-2-Coast Conference or the Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference.

The ASC was actively discussing the situation with both conferences, and multiple sources close to the situation repeatedly said they were very close to an agreement with one of the conferences. However, those same sources also said that every time they appeared to agree, a school president of one of the involved institutions would present a question or suggest a change in the deal that would derail the process.

Talks persisted throughout the summer, and then something concerning happened. During the football season, a few sources stopped answering my attempts to reach them, some even refusing to return a Merry Christmas text. So, what is the future of the ASC beyond 2025? I honestly don’t know, but my gut feeling is that the conference will end after the 2025-2026 school year.

At least, that was my gut feeling last Monday. Every person associated with an ASC institution I’ve spoken to about the conference's future has repeatedly said everything remains on the table. However, everything is kind of broad. What does that mean? “Everything” is the answer I receive each time I ask for more information.

Every scenario mentioned, except for one, would result in the end of the ASC. I didn’t see an exception until one source suggested that two SCAC schools that departed the ASC were offered millions of dollars to return to the conference. We’re not talking about life-changing money for universities, but it’s enough money to get their attention. Is it enough money for two schools to return to the ASC to play Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor yearly, which means competing for third place in the ASC every season? I don’t know.

Let’s face it: the ASC wouldn’t be ending if it wasn’t for the two “purple schools.” I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard from multiple sources that no one wants to beat HSU and UMHB to earn an automatic bid to the playoffs. Why would anyone want to join a conference where they must schedule the two purple schools every year? Those schools can’t find four DIII teams to play them in nonconference action for one season.

247 NCAA Division III schools sponsor football, many of which are in the Midwest. Thirty conferences sponsor DIII football, and seven have 10 or more members, meaning every game they play each year is a conference game or has only one non-conference opening. What about the remaining 176 DIII schools that sponsor football? Why aren’t they willing to play UMHB or HSU? What about the five Texas schools in other conferences?

It’s important to remember that Trinity and McMurry have scheduled nonconference games against UMHB and HSU in recent years, respectively. But the others? It’s cowardly at best. Some coaches have occasionally used player safety as the reason they don’t want to play UMHB and HSU. Some have cited their school’s strenuous academic standards and low acceptance rates as an excuse to avoid the ASC powers. 

These schools choose to make excuses instead of recruiting the talent necessary to compete against HSU and UMHB. These same coaches and administrators will implore their players and workers to avoid making excuses yet have plenty ready when HSU or UMHB calls to schedule a football game. Trinity has exceptionally high academic standards, and they defeated UMHB 35-16 in a nonconference game in 2023.

The new playoff format has also not helped the ASC teams find nonconference opponents. Last year, the DIII playoffs expanded to 40 teams but instituted a National Power Index that rewards teams for playing easier schedules. The committee could quickly fix this by tweaking the formula, but I don’t expect it to happen soon for the same reason HSU, UMHB, and other top-tier DII teams can’t find nonconference opponents. 

Instead of finding a way to raise their standard to compete, these schools are forcing four institutions to find a new home. We’re nearing decision time for the 2026 season in a few months, so what is likely to happen to the ASC schools?

Some industry sources noted the ASC could operate as an independent in the near term, but that isn’t something the schools could maintain financially for many years.

The most likely destination for Howard Payne is the SCAC, while East Texas Baptist would rather join the SAA with Trinity and Southwestern. However, sources indicate SAA is unlikely to approve adding ETBU because it could lower the conference’s academic standing, which is another way to say the Tiger's higher acceptance rates would allow them to dominate the conference in athletics. It’s another argument often used by HSU and UMHB haters. I think ETBU will eventually join the SCAC, but will not be without some resistance. Although, the Tigers joining the NAIA and the Sooner Athletic Conference isn’t out of the question.

Many industry sources believe UMHB and HSU have two options. One option is transitioning to Division I FCS and joining the Pioneer Football League; many consider UMHB the most likely to make this move. However, either school would be at the bottom of the conference endowments, making competing more challenging.

The other option is to join the LSC. Neither HSU nor UMHB prefers this option, which is why the dissolution of the ASC is taking so long. Neither UMHB nor HSU fans, alums, coaches, or administrators want to offer athletic scholarships. However, it might be the only option that either school can afford financially and remain competitive on the field.

Make no mistake, UMHB and HSU would be immediately competitive in the LSC in all sports. The move worked for UT Tyler, and their softball team continues to dominate the competition. The LSC would welcome both schools with open arms because it would allow them to stop making trips to the Northwest every year. 

The end of the ASC seems near, but we’ll remain in a holding pattern until someone makes the first move.