Throughout the 2024 football season, coaches and administrators often expressed apprehension when discussing the future of college athletics. Granted, many of the same people have expressed concern in recent years when discussing the potential effects Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) and the transfer portal will have on college football.

But something was different this year. These coaches and administrators weren’t referencing something that could be solved by the NCAA changing a rule or regulating certain aspects of sports. They were talking about multiple financial concerns on top of the recent inflation the world has experienced since the pandemic and how declining enrollment and a predicted enrollment cliff due to declining birth rates could force more schools to discontinue their football programs or cause entire institutions to close.

We’ve already seen some of these effects since 2020. NCAA Division III Birmingham Southern made ESPN headlines after announcing it was closing the school while the baseball team was competing in the DIII College World Series. NCAA Division II stalwart Mississippi College announced it was discontinuing its football program following the 2024 season after 118 years. Texas Non-FBS has not been unscathed, with North American announcing it was halting its football program after the 2024 campaign. Many others across Non-FBS divisions have either discontinued the football program or closed the institution.

Concerns about the future of college athletics and collegiate institutions are valid. Universities and athletic departments are already facing the financial squeeze from declining birth rates. According to a June 2023 report by the United States Census Bureau, college enrollment had dropped from 23.7 million in 2011 to 21.7 million in 2019. The decline continued through the pandemic, with 21.1 million students enrolled in 2021.

Declining birth rates aren’t simply an issue for colleges. The topic entered our political discourse during the 2024 election cycle, and the noise is likely to increase as rising costs, particularly housing and childcare costs, have led many Americans to choose to have fewer children over the last few decades. 

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, birth rates have steadily declined since 2005, when over 4.1 million children were born. A rapid decline began after 3.94 million children were born in 2016, followed by 3.67 million in 2022. 

The declining birth rate is impacting preschool enrollment, with approximately 4.1 million preschool students in 2021, the lowest recorded number since the American Community Survey began collecting the data in 2005. 

The current United States administration created more concern for colleges when rumors of potentially ending the Department of Education were floated. Coaches and administrators I spoke to over the last few months said an abrupt closing of the Department of Education before the states are prepared to accept the increased burden would create financial chaos for the institutions and athletic programs that depend on federal resources for most of its funding.

Yet, the coaches and administrators I spoke with during the season expressed concern about the uncertainty of whether university presidents and administrations across the country are aware of the difficulties on the horizon. While Texas is faring better financially than other states, and its birth rate has declined at a lower percentage than other states, Non-FBS colleges across the state will feel the impact.

The declining enrollment has already strained many university budgets, many of which also need to address the issue of aging facilities on their campuses. Make no mistake: Having updated and/or new facilities is imperative for schools in Texas fighting to keep their high school graduates from leaving the state to continue their education. Many high school administrations across Texas have openly discussed the coming enrollment cliff facing schools. 

One sign that university presidents are ignoring the difficulties on the horizon is how schools approach realignment. The previously discussed issues have caused many DII schools to hesitate to join Division I since the last round of realignment. 

Despite the challenges, the presidents and administrations of the American Southwest Conference and Western Athletic Conference seem willing to spend more money for their athletic departments' travel when most universities are currently seeking to join forces with schools within their footprint to lower travel costs and help alleviate the effects of the incoming difficulties.

Certainly, Tarleton has the means and support from the Texas A&M System to wait for a more lucrative offer than the Southland Conference. Mary Hardin-Baylor believes it has the funding to play as an independent in DIII for at least a few years. The Texans likely remain competitive within the FCS regardless of the conference, but lowering travel costs while waiting for an invitation from an FBS conference could prove valuable. The Crusaders might be able to afford to be independent, but would the athletic department meet the on-field standards many donors and fans demand? It could benefit UMHB more to invest in scholarships and join the Lone Star Conference, considering the NCAA is instituting roster limits. 

Roster limits pose another challenge that will adversely affect athletic department budgets. Many DIII football teams feature rosters of over 150 players to accommodate their junior varsity squads. Larger rosters are essential for Non-FBS programs at all levels, given that many have a limited number of athletic scholarships or lack them entirely, as with DIII schools. Each player not on scholarship pays tuition, which means the university loses funding for the roster spots cut. Those cuts could result in up to 75 fewer players on some DIII football rosters, making a significant impact.

The other Texas schools in the ASC and WAC, including Hardin-Simmons and Abilene Christian, cannot afford to follow Tarleton and UMHB toward a path of FBS or DIII independence. ACU has dreams of joining an FBS conference, but the Wildcats have yet to make the shortlist for any FBS conference during realignment. ACU is on the path to receiving an FBS invite but remains a few years away as facilities are upgraded and the necessary infrastructure is added to the department. After Tarleton, the Wildcats are the next Texas FCS team likely to jump to FBS.

Many pundits believe the next decade will be challenging for many Non-FBS universities, and more than one source has indicated that North American might not be the last Texas school to discontinue football. How many and which teams remain uncertain, but sources have suggested as many as five Texas Non-FBS schools could close or discontinue football if the economy continues to decline. This is why every person I spoke to about this topic during the season said it’s time for university presidents to develop a plan to meet the challenges. The sooner, the better because the horizon rises quickly.