Dave Aranda was on borrowed time. He convinced the Baylor brass to give him one more season following a 3-9 finish in 2023 with promises of change. He’d hire an exciting offensive coordinator, return to calling plays on defense, and begin utilizing the Baylor war chest to lure top talent from the transfer portal and on the recruiting trail. 

The not-so-secret truth in Waco is that Baylor, especially the administration, wants Aranda to be successful. He’s a mild-mannered man of faith who possesses every core value a small, private institution wants in a coach. If football is the front porch of a university, Baylor wants Aranda to answer the door. To be the face. No different than Scott Drew in basketball. 

But a different, more obvious truth for Baylor is that athletics, and especially football in this state, is a straightforward proposition: Win or get seen the other side of the door. Aranda avoided that fate after 2023 because of what he represents and Baylor’s faith in replicating 2021, but he was undeniably headed towards the exit after a 2-4 start in 2024 that included four losses to fellow Big 12 opponents. 

The Bears were down to two finalists to replace the departing Matt Rhule ahead of the 2020 season – Aranda and Joey McGuire, now head coach at Texas Tech. Baylor traveled to Lubbock on Oct. 19 last year on a three-game losing streak and a dead man walking at head coach. A loss in West Texas would’ve been the end of the Aranda era. Instead, it was the start. 

Aranda always felt one year behind at Baylor after 2021, too slow to adapt to a changing landscape. He avoided the portal heading into 2022. He avoided NIL heading into 2023. By the time he reversed course, he had ceded ground to in-state rivals like TCU and Texas Tech in recruiting and in the portal. The 12-win season of 2021 felt like a mirage. An outlier. A product of the previous staff. 

But no one can deny that the six-game winning streak to end 2024, which began by thumping the Red Raiders for the second time in three years, was all Aranda. Even if the fans and the media and even some decision makers behind the scenes had lost doubt, the locker room still believed. Aranda loves movies almost as much as he loves football. He’s currently writing a roller coaster of a script. 

A Hollywood ending is possible. Try as we might, college football is unpredictable. That’s what we love about it the most. 

And each year, it feels like at least one of the 13 teams from Texas jumps up and becomes a contender at the FBS level out of seemingly nowhere. Whether it was Texas A&M in 2020 and Baylor in 2021. Or TCU in 2022 and SMU in 2024. Someone across the Lone Star State will pleasantly surprise. 

So, who is that program in 2025? My submission is Baylor. The Bears ended the Big 12 regular season with six straight wins by an average margin of 14.83 points. They return a 3,000-yard passer in Sawyer Robertson, a 1,000-yard rusher in Bryson Washington, and their two top pass catchers in Josh Cameron and Ashtyn Hawkins. 

Four out of the five starters along the offensive line return and the most likely replacement at the one departing spot – left tackle – has double-digit starts in his career. Both coordinators are back and Baylor added numerous defensive contributors through the transfer portal to pair with the next generation of stars like linebacker Keaton Thomas.  

Aranda did what successful coaches do: evolve. His Bears are no longer hibernating at the wheel. They pay players. They attack the portal. They got comfortable being uncomfortable. Eventually, it paid off.