Dave Campbell is smiling down on his state this season as three Texas teams compete for a realistic shot at the expanded College Football Playoff. Texas, Texas A&M and SMU have all had great seasons, but here's a fatal flaw that could prevent them from an elite season - reaching the Final Four.

Texas – Offensive personnel
Chance to Make Playoff (per The Athletic): 95%

Texas' defense is national championship-caliber and Steve Sarkisian is one of, if not the, best offensive playcaller in college football. And, right now, I don't think Texas will make the CFP Final Four. The issue? Sark's offense since Quinn Ewers returned from an oblique injury is resigned to screen passes and various dink-and-dunk route concepts for a myriad of reasons.

1. Opponents don't fear the run game

This season will be the first since Steve Sarkisian first became a head coach in 2009 that his team will finish without a 1,000-yard rusher. Texas having a running back by committee is not the problem - it's that said committee ranks 89th in the nation in rushing plays of over 10+ yards. The Longhorns have had a 100-yard rusher in just three of 10 games.

Texas has been behind the 8-ball in the RB room since presumed feature back CJ Baxter and highly touted freshman Christian Clark suffered season-ending injuries in fall camp. The resulting rotation of Tre Wisner, Jaydon Blue (oft-banged up) and Jerrick Gibson (true freshman), is not as dynamic as the Bijan Robinsons, Roschon Johnsons and Jonathon Brookses before them. 

2. BECAUSE opponents don't fear the run game, they're dialing up exotic blitzes

Texas has allowed 13 sacks in the Georgia, Vanderbilt and Arkansas games alone. Of those 13 sacks, 8.5 are from second-level defenders, which means the offensive line is getting beat off blitz packages and stunts rather than physically manhandled. 

3. BECAUSE of the exotic blitzes, Quinn Ewers doesn't have the time/ability to get to his second read

Ewers' average depth of throw ranks among the lowest in the Power Four because Sark is using the screen game as a substitute for the running game and because the exotic fronts are confusing Ewers into holding the ball too long, preventing deep shots. He was 1-of-6 on deep throws against Arkansas.

Ewers should get credit for not making the disaster plays that could get Texas beat, but game managing is not enough to beat college football's elite when the run game isn't elite.

SMU – Big plays allowed by defense
Chance to Make Playoff (per The Athletic): 44%

SMU has to win out to make the CFP, which means beating Miami in the ACC Championship Game. While the Mustangs have the best defense in program history, their one potentially fatal flaw is allowing explosive plays (SMU ranks 73rd in the nation in plays over 40+ yards allowed). That's a weakness that could be exploited by Miami quarterback Cam Ward, who's leading an offense that's ninth in the nation in 40+ yard plays.

Texas A&M – Lack of vertical passing game
Chance to Make Playoff (per The Athletic): 11%

Texas A&M has a clear winning formula - bludgeoning teams in a phone booth with the ground game and defense. But the running back room is thinner after losing Le'Veon Moss, who was fourth in the SEC in all-purpose yards, for the season, and Texas A&M doesn't have the game-breaking wide receiver to offset the ground game's loss. The permanent switch to quarterback Marcel Reed gives them another dynamic rusher, and allows the formula to suffice through the end of the regular season. Texas A&M, however, doesn't have multiple ways to beat teams, which makes them predictable. 

The Aggies have 10 pass plays of 30+ yards this season, while Houston, which is second-to-last in the nation in scoring offense, has nine. Texas A&M is 96th in the nation in passing offense, averaging less than 200 yards per game. Noah Thomas, the leading receiver, is averaging 39 yards a game.

The devil's advocate - if Texas A&M wins the SEC, it means they beat Texas and Georgia and can therefore beat anyone in the country.