Don’t look now, but the calendar will soon turn to November, which means we are three weeks away from the end of the NCAA Division III regular season. Considering the DIII teams in Texas are split into three separate conferences, this is an excellent time to discuss how the American Southwest Conference and the Southern Athletic Association will determine who gets its automatic bids should two or three teams end the season tied atop the standings.

The Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference does not own an automatic bid to the playoffs this year and will crown co-champions should McMurry and Texas Lutheran finish tied. The Bulldogs' 28-6 victory over the War Hawks evened the season series between the two teams, increasing the likelihood that both teams will claim the SCAC title this year.

American Southwest Conference

If the season were to end after last week, Hardin-Simmons would claim the ASC title outright for the second consecutive season and the conference’s automatic bid to the playoffs.

But who would be the champion if Mary Hardin-Baylor upsets the Cowboys when they meet again in two weeks in Abilene?

The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record, which would be even at 1-1. The second tiebreaker is their record against each ASC opponent in descending order, starting with the highest-seeded team. Assuming HSU and UMHB win their rematches against East Texas Baptist and Howard Payne, the Cowboys and Crusaders would finish 2-0 against both teams.

The third tiebreaker is when things get interesting. Should UMHB and HSU remain tied, the ASC’s tiebreaker policy resembles that of most Texas high school football districts. Point differentials determine the automatic bid, and the point differential is capped at a maximum of 21 points.

Considering HSU won its first meeting against the Cru by a score of 44-21, UMHB must defeat the Cowboys by at least 21 points when they meet in Abilene. Any victory of less than 21 points by the Cru will result in HSU receiving the ASC’s automatic bid.

Should the Crusaders defeat HSU by 21 or more points, the next tiebreaker is the point differential against each team within the conference in descending order. That means ETBU and HPU play a significant role in determining which team earns the automatic bid. The Tigers are currently in third place. UMHB defeated ETBU by 14 in their first meeting and HSU earned a 16-point victory over the Tigers last Saturday.

However, HSU and UMHB were at home for their first game against ETBU and will travel to Marshall for the second meeting against the Tigers. With HSU and UMHB maxing out the point differential in their first meeting against HPU, the ASC’s automatic bid could be determined by who wins and by how many points against ETBU. Currently, HSU holds a two-point edge in that tiebreaker.

Should the Cowboys and Crusaders remain tied after the first four tiebreakers, ASC Commissioner David Flores will conduct a coin toss to determine who will receive the automatic bid to the playoffs.

Southern Athletic Association

Centre controls the SAA race as the only remaining undefeated team. A win by Centre over Berry next week will put the Colonels one victory away from claiming the outright conference title and an automatic bid to the playoffs. However, the SAA race would drastically change if Berry defeats the Colonels next week, which could place them into a four-way tie alongside Trinity and Millsaps.

Before we break down the SAA’s tiebreaker policy, should three teams end the season tied in the standings, it’s important to note that this scenario only occurs if Berry defeats Centre next week and both the Vikings and Trinity beat Millsaps when they meet later in November. Any other result, including Millsaps defeating Berry or Trinity, will result in Centre claiming the SAA title and automatic bid, with the Colonels owning wins over the Tigers and Majors earlier this season.

According to the SAA Operations Manual, dated September 2021, the following tiebreakers would determine who receives the automatic bid if Centre, Berry, and Trinity are tied at the end of the regular season. First, each team is awarded two points for each victory against the other conference co-champions, which would result in the teams remaining tied.

Then, each team is awarded one point for each win against the other teams in the conference who do not share the title, which would leave the teams tied for the playoff bid. The next tiebreaker considers the team’s overall records, giving the team with the fewest losses the automatic bid. However, all three teams will end the season with two losses and remain tied in this scenario.

At this point, the SAA turns to the opponent’s overall record. The team whose opponents have the highest win/loss percentage will earn the conference’s automatic bid to the playoffs. Through last week’s games, Centre currently holds a slight edge in this category (65.9 percent), followed by Trinity (64.3 percent) and Berry (62.8 percent).

However, Berry has the most challenging remaining schedule, with games against Centre, Millsaps, and Rhodes, who are a combined 12-9 this season. Trinity’s remaining opponents are 10-11, while Centre’s remaining foes are a combined 9-12. 

The bottom line is that if Berry defeats Centre next week, the automatic bid to the NCAA Division III playoffs will be determined by around two percentage points, leaving those teams tied with Trinity at the conclusion of the regular season. If two teams remain tied at this point, then the head-to-head result will determine who receives the playoff bid.